In 2023, the prices of major photovoltaic products in China have shown a significant decline, and the overall trend of exports is showing an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, which has attracted great attention from the industry. As one of the "new three types" driving China's foreign trade exports, what will be the trend of China's photovoltaic exports? What challenges will photovoltaic companies face when going global, and how should they respond?

As one of the "new three types" driving China's foreign trade exports, the export of photovoltaic products continues to accelerate. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2023, the export volume of the three main materials of photovoltaic products in China - silicon wafers, batteries, and modules - reached 70.3 gigawatts, 39.3 gigawatts, and 211.7 gigawatts, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 93.6%, 65.5%, and 37.9%.

However, in 2023, the prices of major photovoltaic products in China have shown a significant decline, and the overall trend of exports showing an increase in quantity and a decrease in price has attracted great attention from the industry. In response to this, Zhang Sen, Secretary General of the Photovoltaic Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, analyzed to reporters, "In 2023, China's photovoltaic product exports slightly decreased year-on-year, while exports increased significantly. The industry's volume increased and prices decreased, and enterprises significantly reduced costs and increased efficiency. The European energy crisis erupted, and global energy transformation demand was strong. A large amount of capital poured into the photovoltaic industry, leading to rapid expansion of photovoltaic production capacity, resulting in a phased supply-demand imbalance on a global scale. Prices of various links such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules significantly decreased, with some links even dropping by more than 50% compared to the beginning of 2023."

What will be the trend of China's photovoltaic exports in 2024? What challenges will photovoltaic companies face when going global, and how should they respond? The reporter conducted an interview.

Mainly benefited from Chinese photovoltaic products

Strong competitiveness of oneself

In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly and continues to maintain a global leading position. At present, China's photovoltaic and wind power products have been exported to more than 200 countries and regions worldwide, and Chinese companies have invested in clean energy overseas in major countries and regions around the world.

The impressive export performance is mainly due to the strong competitiveness of Chinese photovoltaic products themselves. Chinese enterprises are continuously increasing their research and development efforts while reducing costs and increasing efficiency, striving to tackle the new generation of photovoltaic cell technology.

The report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency shows that over the past decade, the average cost of electricity per kilowatt hour for global photovoltaic power generation projects has cumulatively decreased by more than 80%, largely due to Chinese innovation, Chinese manufacturing, and Chinese engineering.

An anonymous photovoltaic company insider also told reporters, "Thanks to the continuous accumulation of technology and production capacity, Chinese photovoltaic companies have a competitive advantage in the international market. Our products have lower electricity costs, making Chinese photovoltaic products the preferred choice for overseas customers."

Zhang Sen also stated that the Chinese photovoltaic industry ranks first in the world in terms of technology reserves, market size, manufacturing capacity, and the completeness of the industrial chain. "Going global" products can meet different market demands in terms of power, efficiency, quality, supporting services, localization, and other aspects.

In fact, currently Chinese photovoltaic companies are not limited to exporting products, and overseas investment in building factories has become a new strategic choice for many photovoltaic companies to go global. After reviewing relevant information, it was found that since 2023, multiple Chinese photovoltaic companies such as Longji Green Energy, JA Solar Technology, Trina Solar, and Atlas have announced plans to build factories overseas, sparking a new wave of photovoltaic "going global".

The continuous promotion of global energy transformation,

We cannot do without the support of China's photovoltaic industry

The product is popular overseas, but the process is not smooth sailing. According to industry insiders interviewed, as more and more countries compete in the international photovoltaic market, the international competition faced by China's photovoltaic product exports is becoming increasingly fierce. Combined with factors such as trade protection, foreign markets are full of challenges. The foreign trade situation faced by China's photovoltaic industry is becoming increasingly severe and complex, with some countries attempting to build new trade barriers that hinder the sustainable development of China's photovoltaic enterprises.

"In the current trend of global production capacity integration layout, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises need to consider more the uncertainty of the local environment when building overseas factories. For example, national trade and investment risks, industrial chain integrity, and performance risks." Zhang Sen pointed out that countries and regions such as the United States, the European Union, and India frequently impose restrictions and investigations on Chinese photovoltaic enterprises, which has a certain impact on their normal overseas development.

Peng Peng, Secretary General of the China New Energy Power Investment and Financing Alliance, also stated that currently, photovoltaic companies are facing risks and challenges such as policy adjustments and political frictions in exporting countries when going abroad, such as imposing tariffs and increasing the proportion of locally produced spare parts. Moreover, companies are not easily aware of such risks.

Industry insiders believe that the rapid growth of China's photovoltaic product exports has caused anxiety and concern in many countries, attempting to exclude Chinese photovoltaic products through trade restrictions. However, this approach will eventually lead to a backlash. "The continuous promotion of global energy transformation cannot be achieved without the support of China's photovoltaic industry."

Zhang Sen suggests that enterprises should continuously improve product quality and competitiveness, focus on advanced technology, technological innovation, and brand advantages, and actively research and develop and layout advanced production capacity. At the same time, it is necessary to target segmented markets, form differentiated competitive advantages, and promote the formation of a high-quality industrial structure with complementary products and markets.

Localization of factory construction in overseas markets should be implemented effectively,

At the same time, it is also necessary to avoid "rushing forward"

Currently, addressing climate change and accelerating energy transformation has become a common consensus and action among countries around the world, and the direction of global green development is becoming more firm. Especially in November 2023, the Sunshine Hometown Declaration on Strengthening Cooperation to Cope with the Climate Crisis issued by China and the United States provides more space for the development of renewable energy. China has always been an active advocate and practitioner of green energy transformation. In the eyes of industry insiders, these will continue to inspire the confidence of Chinese photovoltaic companies to go global. Chinese photovoltaic companies should continue to strategically layout with a global perspective and maintain international competitiveness.

The interviewees generally hold an optimistic attitude towards the export prospects of China's photovoltaic products this year and the growth rate of global photovoltaic market demand.

Zhang Sen emphasized, "In the long run, the trend of global energy green transformation and increasing investment and cooperation in new energy such as photovoltaics will not change, the growth trend of installed capacity in the global photovoltaic market will not change, and the situation of Chinese photovoltaic products serving the world will not change."

Looking ahead to the future, what efforts should Chinese photovoltaic companies make to go global?

Liu Yiyang, Deputy Secretary General of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, pointed out that it is the trend for enterprises to "go abroad", but it is necessary to conduct research and be familiar with the relationships and trade rules between countries. At the same time, localizing factory construction in overseas markets should be implemented in practice, while also avoiding a rush to build.

Zhang Sen stated that currently, China's photovoltaic enterprises have a more diverse selection of overseas layout destinations. When going abroad, enterprises are more concerned with diversified product and service supply, mutual benefit and win-win, and jointly explore the global photovoltaic market.

Jibang Consulting predicts that the neutral expectation for global photovoltaic installed capacity in 2024 is 474GW, a year-on-year increase of 16%. From the perspective of the four major regional markets, the demand for installed capacity in Asia and Europe will enter a stage of adjustment and maintain stable growth; The installation demand in the United States is expected to significantly recover, driving the overall market in the Americas to maintain a high growth rate; In the Middle East region, the accelerated implementation of energy transformation strategies, coupled with a decline in component prices, may accelerate the construction of large-scale photovoltaic ground power stations in countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.